Though it is slow and difficult
to identify, China’s strategy of building artificial islands in the South China
Sea (Bien Dong Sea – East Sea) is dangerous because of its strategic value and the
ability to change face that benefits China once the island chain is fully
developed .
The "abrasive" move and
China's long-term attempt.
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China conducts illegal construction activities on Gac Ma
(Johnson South Reef) of the Truong Sa Archipelago (Spratly Islands) of Vietnam.
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China’s East Sea policy has a clear delineation between
short term and long term. The strategy to maintain a continuous presence in the
undisputed waters to gradually turn them into disputed areas has been
resolutely pursued by Beijing. The 981 oil rig incident is a typical example.
China used this oil rig as a "mobile sovereignty landmark " to
maintain its presence in the undisputed waters, even in the areas that are
completely within the exclusive economic zone of its neighboring countries.
The objective of turning from "no dispute" to
"dispute", from "theirs" to "ours", have been
implemented in accordance with the motto of the Chinese people, "What is
mine is mine, what's yours, we can negotiate."
Along with that move, China’s strengthening and expansion of
the construction of artificial islands has shown their long-term strategic
calculations in the East Sea. The 981 oil rig is a pretty risky move, but it is
substantially easier to manage and attract the support of the international
community for a small country like Vietnam. Meanwhile, though it takes place
slowly and is difficult to identify, the artificial island building strategy is
more dangerous.
Another way to evaluate China’s East Sea strategy is through
changes of targets in certain stages. These are intentional changes. We will
see the same thing when considering China's maritime strategy from 2009 to
present. For example, how could China say that the Declaration on the Conduct
of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) - signed in 2002 and the guidelines for
implementing the DOC signed in 2011 – would be the lodestar navigation of the
parties, when the use of force is still a key tool in Beijing's policy.
Currently, what we can see most clearly in China's steps are
the consistency of the overall goal to increase the ability to control the
entire East Sea. What is not clear is the specific objectives and tasks that
every single department of China will perform.
This is considered the main difficulty, because Vietnam in
particular and more broadly, the ASEAN countries and the international
community in general, will find it difficult to know in detail what the Chinese
agencies in charge of the East Sea will do what, when and where.
Keep
calm
Therefore, Vietnam should not be so focused on predicting
the short-term and specific goals of China, but on learning about the nature
and long-term strategy of China.
Vietnam should probably determine the correct perspective
and develop a comprehensive strategy for the East Sea before going into each
small act of China. From there, from the overall view, Vietnam can build
detailed objectives and plans for each phase.
This raises the need to focus on building a long-term and
overall strategy to deal with the long-term goal of China. A sound strategy
with clear objectives and specific division of tasks will help ensure efficient
utilization of resources within and outside the country, thereby creating
advantages in the field and on the negotiating table. Without an overall
strategy, Vietnam will be unable to cope with the inconsistent statements and
actions of China.
Source: VNN
